Earlier this year, IDC lowered its forecast from 2.6% to only 0.6% growth because of various global challenges. Then, the institute said that “high uncertainty, tariff volatility and macro-economic challenges such as inflation and unemployment across many regions” would lead to consumer spending less.
In its latest report, the institute still notes that there are challenges, but despite them, there’s demand for replacing devices, which it says “will help push growth into 2026”.
While tariff volatility continues to pose high uncertainty, for now it is just background noise for the majority of smartphone vendors. OEMs must push forward their diversification and production plans to ensure there are enough shipments to fulfill demand which remains healthy in most markets, in select segments.
Nabila Popal, senior research director with IDC’s Worldwide Quarterly Mobile Phone Tracker, August 2025
Most regions of the world are expected to see market growth this year, except China, which is set for a 1% decline. However, the market will grow 3.6% in the US, 6.5% in the Middle East and Africa, and 0.8% in the Asia Pacific, excluding China.
IDC’s forecasts through 2029 paint a positive picture for the market, but also for foldable devices and AI on smartphones. In 2025, the so-called GenAI phones will contribute to a 30% market share, but by 2029, that number will grow to over 70%. That will be driven by improved capabilities, more use cases, and better consumer education about the AI features on people’s phones.
Worldwide smartphone shipments forecast — IDC
Foldables are expected to mark 6% growth in 2025, followed by another 6% next year and 11% in 2027. Despite that, they will stay a niche type of device, and by 2029, they’ll represent less than 3% of the smartphone shipments.
I’m not surprised that the majority of smartphones will have AI features, but I’d be disappointed if that forecast about foldable phones turns out to be true. The latest foldables, like the Galaxy Z Fold 7 and the Oppo Find N5, were the first of their kind to make me believe that a foldable can be a mainstream device. I guess that if Apple’s rumored iPhone Fold is anything like those, IDC would need to adjust its forecast once again.
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